Velocity gets a bad reputation, mostly because we ask it to do jobs it was never meant to do. It’s not a promise. It’s not a target. And it definitely isn’t a stick to beat teams with.
Used properly, it’s just a way of having a sensible conversation about what might get done and just as importantly, what might not.
The mistake people keep making
Most teams don’t have enough history for trends to mean much. A few iterations go well, and suddenly people are drawing lines on charts and predicting improvements. A couple go badly, and everyone panics. Rather than hunting for trends that probably aren’t real, there’s a much simpler and more honest way to use velocity.
Three numbers. That’s it.
When I’m trying to forecast delivery, I look at three views of velocity:
- The most recent iteration
This tells you what just happened in the team’s current reality. Useful, but easy to over-interpret. - The average over time
This smooths out the bumps and gives you a sense of what the team usually manages. - The average of the three slowest iterations
This is the one people like least and need most. It shows what delivery looks like when things aren’t going smoothly.
Together, these give you a recent signal, a steady baseline, and a realistic worst case. No drama. No false optimism.
Turning that into a real conversation
Let’s say you’ve got five iterations left.
- Slowest three average: 14 points = about 70 points
- Overall average: 17 points = about 85 points
- Most recent: 19 points = about 95 points
The mistake is picking one number and pretending it’s “the plan”. The better conversation is: “Based on how we’ve actually delivered before, we’re likely to land somewhere between 70 and 95 points. Around 85 feels reasonable if nothing unusual gets in the way.” That gives people context, not false certainty.
What to avoid (please)
Don’t assume velocity will keep rising just because it did once
Don’t plan around the best-case number
Don’t commit externally to the top end of the range
Don’t treat a dip as a reason to lower expectations permanently
If velocity drops, the answer isn’t plan for less forever. It’s “what’s getting in the way and how do we remove it?”
Why does this work better in the real world
This approach: sets expectations without over-promising, gives product owners something solid to work with, protects teams from being squeezed by optimistic planning, and keeps leadership conversations grounded in evidence. Most importantly, it keeps velocity where it belongs: as an input to thinking, not a verdict on performance.
The honest truth
Velocity won’t give you certainty. Nothing will. What it can do is help you talk honestly about uncertainty, and that’s far more valuable than pretending you can predict the future.
If planning feels stressful or political, it’s usually because someone’s asking velocity to do a job it can’t do.